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Ouch. On one hand, Australia's long-running bid to host the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the privilege to host the world's biggest climate summit and green trade fair, which would have brought tens of thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next November.

This won't occur. Rather, the summit known as Cop31 is headed to the resort city of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had hoped hosting the environmental gathering could help accelerate the country's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures really wanted the bid to succeed. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. This led to stories in the Australian and international media saying the government was walking away.

This contrasted with the communication being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. While Bowen championed it, other senior members of the administration have only sometimes appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and at times outright opposed.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to consider it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the announcement on this week may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome available.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the Cop president, organizer and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", managing nearly 200 countries on the matters that the nations actually turn up for – the talks on how to together combat the climate crisis.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. The details of the deal had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could fall over before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the international cooperation on global warming.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the global community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. The system is supposed to work by consensus. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the race those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is privately arranged to persuade them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid plainly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's host had supported the southern pitch.

But, exceptionally, Ankara declined to withdraw. The word "disruption" has been used frequently in recent days, and not just by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no major power with the influence to stare down the petroleum exporters that offered the Turks with some cover.

The Turkish president is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Several nations worried about a conference obstructed from the top if his government managed the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to host an underprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was needed. The UN system is flawed and often unsettling to observe, but global cooperation has demonstrably had an impact in the fight against climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for expanding fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who participate in UN conferences see the minister as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been requested to co-chair negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This is significant. Although certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "chief negotiator", experts from academic institutions and experienced analysts at climate talks assert it is pivotal to their success.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a president holding the pen who can listen, forge agreement and deliver an ambitious outcome. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the conference except for making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unresolved issues. As an illustration, civil society plays a vital role at environmental summits. What, if at all, can the Australian government do to stop a crackdown on NGO participation by the host government?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this deal appearing as the most promising opportunity available to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, the nation and the global community. This attempt is justified.