Daily Homicides in Mexico Fall Thirty-Seven Percent Under the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Official Statistics

The mean count of per-day homicides each month in Mexico has dropped by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per recent administrative statistics. Nevertheless, security analysts have advised that homicide figures may not signal enhanced countrywide safety.

Notable Decline in Per-Day Averages

Officials reported an average of nearly 55 homicides a day in last November versus almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the presidential office in September of last year. This data was delivered by the director of the country’s federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in killings that we have seen over these past months is remarkably significant,” the President said, explaining that last month the lowest figure of homicides were documented for any single November in the past 10 years.

Recent Context and Government Strategy

Fierce drug cartel rivalries, combined with the administration's heavily military efforts to combat the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s homicide rate soar in the past few years. The figure hit a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the nation's official data office.

That gave Mexico a murder figure more than four times greater than the United States. Since then, murders have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has credited her national security approach for an seemingly sharper drop in homicides in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the President said: “We have a plan, we have monitoring of the strategy, and there is detailed tracking municipality by municipality in some cases. The plan functions. And we have to persist at it every day.”

The key components of Sheinbaum’s safety plan encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigative capabilities.
• Greater coordination between various authorities.

Analyst Caution and Data Concerns

Nevertheless, security analysts cautioned that focusing solely on murder statistics to draw a conclusion of pacification was flawed. This is particularly true given the rise in other crimes such as forced disappearances.

“It would be very good news if this were a drop, but I think we must not just concentrate on the murder numbers and think: ‘Oh well, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly optimistic.”

According to the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total fell by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year versus the identical timeframe last year. But, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in some states have surged by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is no longer useful for gauging the situation of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the resources or the desire to properly recognize and classify corpses. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the ability to hide violence through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that using monthly averages of everyday homicides was additionally problematic because it may mask periods when there were notably spiking levels of murders.

“Employing the daily average makes high peaks of violence invisible,” he stated.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

Where the administration can point to the success of its security strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 people were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for high-impact offenses, per official figures. Over 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tons of narcotics intercepted.

“The former US president cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because actually she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s very politically advantageous,” said Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Public Anger

But notwithstanding these actions, Mexico remains plagued by extreme violence, with a number of states in the throes of cartel-fueled conflict. Recently there was a notable murder of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders murdered in the last 12 months.

Weeks later, thousands of young people demonstrated in the capital and across the nation to show their frustration at corruption and cartel violence.

“The administration shares [data] in a manner to construct a picture of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s very effective, from a social perspective it’s highly questionable,” the analyst said.