Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Each composes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has got something to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
